Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 2.306074 2.438814 2.583035 2.752945 2.949811 3.173596 3.451633
2025-09-14 2.116577 2.271580 2.445919 2.659822 2.920182 3.234165 3.654428
2025-09-21 2.025057 2.196201 2.393572 2.643226 2.959076 3.359086 3.931135
2025-09-28 1.938965 2.116732 2.325038 2.593832 2.942895 3.400474 4.087982
2025-10-05 1.916733 2.108975 2.338621 2.642330 3.050036 3.609384 4.509951
2025-10-12 1.911279 2.118948 2.371714 2.714310 3.190225 3.876059 5.072588
2025-10-19 1.871230 2.082858 2.343026 2.700388 3.206373 3.956585 5.331812
2025-10-26 1.843257 2.059669 2.328317 2.702211 3.241840 4.065794 5.659507
2025-11-02 1.794799 2.008291 2.274236 2.646133 3.186656 4.021073 5.668889
2025-11-09 1.765379 1.979701 2.248165 2.626451 3.182524 4.056506 5.843821
2025-11-16 1.740453 1.955660 2.226604 2.611080 3.182261 4.095425 6.027999
2025-11-23 1.715885 1.931054 2.203025 2.591089 3.172445 4.114681 6.166121
2025-11-30 1.705306 1.924743 2.204179 2.607078 3.220408 4.241392 6.596309
2025-12-07 1.658767 1.870557 2.139643 2.526382 3.112216 4.079370 6.269774
2025-12-14 1.640535 1.852575 2.122942 2.513479 3.109679 4.106927 6.431871
2025-12-21 1.612223 1.820758 2.086711 2.470992 3.057919 4.040448 6.335219
2025-12-28 1.618661 1.834053 2.111084 2.516212 3.146745 4.237108 6.983769
2026-01-04 1.632835 1.857440 2.149287 2.582411 3.272564 4.517248 8.006000
2026-01-11 1.619357 1.843816 2.136172 2.571571 3.269287 4.540720 8.206081
2026-01-18 1.611642 1.837525 2.132775 2.574757 3.289003 4.611000 8.592672
2026-01-25 1.586102 1.807079 2.095367 2.525723 3.218019 4.488570 8.224376
2026-02-01 1.572793 1.792682 2.079871 2.509285 3.201902 4.479325 8.287968
2026-02-08 1.561376 1.780563 2.067208 2.496629 3.191427 4.480379 8.388219